SO SÁNH GIÁ TRỊ CỦA PANC-3 HIỆU CHỈNH NGƯỜI CHÂU Á VÀ BISAP TRONG DỰ ĐOÁN VIÊM TỤY CẤP NẶNG TẠI BỆNH VIỆN NHÂN DÂN GIA ĐỊNH

Abstract

Background: The PANC-3 score, developed by Brown et al. (2007) (Hct >44%, Pleural effusion, and BMI >30 kg/m²) demonstrated good predictive performance. However, previous researches used a BMI threshold >30 kg/m², without applying the WHO’s BMI classification for Asians. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of a modified PANC-3 score using a BMI cut off of ≥25 kg/m² for Vietnamese. Material and Methods: A cohort study was conducted with 151 individuals diagnosed with AP and stratified severity based on the Revised Atlanta Classification of 2012. Results: A total of 151 patients were recruited from between November 2023 and August 2024. SAP accounted for 15.89%. The modified PANC-3 score for Asians showed good predictive value with an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83–0.94), sensitivity of 70.83%, specificity of 98.43%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 89.47%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 94.70%. When compared with BISAP in predicting SAP, the modified PANC-3 score showed higher sensitivity (70.83% vs. 29.17%, p = 0.02) and NPV (94.70% vs. 87.94%, p = 0.02), while specificity was similar (98.43% vs. 97.64%, p = 0.65). There was no different PPV between the modified PANC-3 score and BISAP (89.47% vs. 70%, p = 0.18). Conclusion: The modified PANC-3 score for Asians provides excellent clinical utility. The modified PANC-3 score can be used to recognize SAP early to improve the outcome of AP.