GIÁ TRỊ TIÊN LƯỢNG CỦA MÔ HÌNH PHỐI HỢP EASIX VÀ BISAP TRONG VIÊM TỤY CẤP

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of combined models incorporating EASIX, NLR and BISAP in predicting severe acute pancreatitis (AP) and organ failure. Subjects and methods: A prospective cohort study on 121 AP patients at the 108 Military Central Hospital and Military Hospital 103 from June 2025 to March 2026. The three scores were calculated within 24 hours of admission. Four combined models were constructed using logistic regression; AUROCs were compared using DeLong's test, and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Results: AUROCs for severe AP and organ failure were EASIX (0.802 and 0.790), BISAP (0.700 and 0.732), and NLR (0.600 and 0.592). The combined EASIX + BISAP model achieved an AUROC of 0.827 for severe AP (p = 0.02 vs. BISAP) and 0.838 for organ failure (p = 0.03), with specificity of 95.0–95.1%, NPV of 92.2–93.3%, and good calibration. The three-score model showed performance comparable to the two-score model. Conclusion: The combined EASIX + BISAP model significantly improves prognostic performance over BISAP alone, providing a simple and feasible tool for early risk stratification; adding NLR yields no significant improvement.