GIÁ TRỊ THANG ĐIỂM ERAP TRONG TIÊN LƯỢNG TỬ VONG Ở BỆNH NHÂN VIÊM TỤY CẤP

Abstract

Objective: To determine area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of the ERAP score in predicting mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). To compare the value of ERAP score and BISAP score in predicting mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Subjects and methods: It was a retrospective and prospective cohort study which was carried out at the Department of Gastroenterology of Cho Ray Hospital from August 2021 to May 2022. Results: In 167 patients with acute pancreatitis, 13 patients died, accounting for 7.8%. The increase in mortality rate corresponded to increasing ERAP score from 0 to 4 and was statistically significant with p < 0.001 by the Cochran-Armitage test. The cutoff point of 2 was optimal with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 92.3%, 63.0%, 17.4% and 99.0%, respectively. In patients with ERAP score ≥ 2 there was a 20.4-time higher difference in mortality rate than those with ERAP score < 2. AUC of the ERAP score for mortality was 0.817. There was no significant difference in AUC of ERAP and BISAP scores in predicting mortality with p = 0.0628. Conclusion: The ERAP score had a good predictive value for mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis and was equivalent to the BISAP score.